I am going to quickly go through the four NFL Divisional Playoff Games that will take place this weekend. I have two upset picks for this weekend, but I will also give you the spread winners for all four games.
New England Patriots Vs Denver Broncos
Denver is not going to be my upset pick for this weekend. At this point, I don’t want to say that the Broncos can’t win a game with Tim Tebow at the helm. That being said, there is no way that the Denver offense is going to be able to match TDs with Tom Brady at New England.
Denver is a staggering 13 1/2 point underdog. The betting is hovering around 50/50 with this line. The over/under is currently set at 50 points.
There is only one thing going in favor of the Broncos. The Patriots defense is not very good at all. Tim Tebow is going to have to throw in this game like he did against the Steelers last week.
The Patriots have several things going in their favor, mainly on offense. They have too many weapons. If you take away Wes Welker, he will throw it to Rob Gronkowski. Take him away and he will throw to one of the wide receivers.
I see this game ending with close to the same score as the Saints last week. Denver may be able to keep things close for the first half, but the Pats will extend the lead after halftime.
The 13 1/2 points is hard to bet on, especially because Tebow won’t let Denver quit until the game is over. This could be the game that a late TD could bring the game under that spread. However, I have New England winning the game by a final score of 37-23.
New Orleans Saints vs San Francisco 49ers
The Saints are actually a 3 1/2 point favorite on the road. Also, almost 3 of 4 bettors are picking the Saints to beat the 49ers by more than 3 points. This surprises me for a couple of reasons:
1) The 49ers defense is not the Detroit Lions defense. You will not see the Saints score 30 points or more. The Lions secondary was a bad joke. The 49ers secondary is one of the best in the league.
2) The Saints are on the road, where they are 5-3 this year. Of these 5 wins, 3 were by 5 points or less. They scored 30 or more points only 3 times on the road.
3) San Francisco’s only home loss this season was an OT game against the Cowboys. Only 2 teams scored 20 points or more at Candlestick Park: Dallas – 27, New York Giants – 20
One reason people think that the Saints will be able to handle the 49ers is because the 49ers offense doesn’t compare statistically. But, San Francisco is a throwback team that runs first and stops the other teams running game.
Don’t forget, Drew Brees got some help last weekend with the Lions secondary dropping 3 interceptions. That won’t happen again this weekend if he makes bad mistakes.
I have San Francisco winning this game at home by the final score of 25-20. That means that I also think the score will be under 47 points.
New York Giants vs Green Bay Packers
This is going to be an interesting game and I think much closer that the sportsbooks have it. Right now, the line is set a 7 1/2. I think that this is too high. Green Bay played one of their toughest games of the season against the Giants while they were still completely healthy.
Green Bay was able to rest their injured players and should be healthy for the game. Will Greg Jennings be able to come right back into the offense without any sign of rust? Will the defense be ready for New York’s passing attack?
What we saw last week with the Giants was a team that is gelling at the right time; very similar to what Green Bay did last year. The Packers went on the road to beat a 14-2 Atlanta Falcons last year after they squeezed into the playoffs. I believe that the Giants can do the same thing back to them this weekend.
Both teams have very potent passing attacks. Eli Manning actually passed for more yards this year than Aaron Rodgers. This game is going to come down to two things:
1) Running Game – New York’s running game finally came alive last weekend and both Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw are healthy. Green Bay has not been hurt by a lack of a running game since last season before the playoffs. Ryan Grant may have had a few huge plays, but the Packers can’t rely on the running game on a regular basis. They haven’t had to because Rodgers has been so good.
2) Turnovers – The Packers defense is very average this year and gives up a lot of yardage. They have compensated all year by forcing turnovers. However, this is not the same old Eli Manning that throws a lot of interceptions. He will be up for the challenge at Green Bay.
I’m going to take the New York Giants as a huge upset this weekend over the Packers by the score of 35-31.
Houston Texans Vs Baltimore Ravens
Here is another game that is viewed as a relative mismatch. The Ravens are currently a 7 1/2 favorite at home against the Texans. The over/under is 35 1/2 and I wouldn’t be very comfortable betting on this either way.
Houston may have won their first playoff game as a franchise, but they did so against a young and inexperienced Bengals team. They are now going to have to go into a hostile environment against a great defensive team. This is going to be very difficult with a rookie quarterback.
Baltimore has the 2nd best rushing defense in the league. In order for Houston to win this game, they are going to have to run effectively against this defense. They may be able to do this, but I can’t see the Texans not turning the ball over at least 2 times in this game. That is going to be all that the Ravens will need to win.
These two teams played earlier in the season at Baltimore. This was the only time this season that Houston was held under 100 yards rushing. Matt Schaub was still healthy but they didn’t have Andre Johnson. Now, the reverse is true.
In order for Houston to win, they are going to have to win the passing battle between T.J. Yates and Joe Flacco. If this game was at Houston, I wouldn’t have a hard time believing that; but it isn’t, so all of the pressure will be on the Texans defense to keep them in the game.
I have the Baltimore Ravens winning this matchup with the final score of 23-16. That final score would suggest that Houston will beat the spread, but this is a game that I wouldn’t be confident betting on the spread.
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